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global warming & global cheat
Arctic September sea ice extent in observations (red), and IPCC AR4 'model ensemble' (blue). The figure originates from UCAR with data from NSIDC; the red star is for the 2007 September sea ice extent. IPCC - International Panel on Climate Change UCAR - University Corporation for Atmospheric Research NSIDC - National Snow and Ice Data Center |
In an interview with The Associated Press, ahead of the UN climate summit in Copenha- gen, Yvo de Boer, the UN's top climate official, conceded that hacked e-mails from climate scientists had damaged the image of global warming research. Would you believe that? It is not that scientists who were "manipulating information in a certain direction" (a nice summary phrase for data shielding, data doctoring, suppressing others' work and view- points) had damaged the research, but the hackers who exposed the manipulation. Actually, Yvo de Boer is right in the main- stream of scientific research reality: the exposed manipulation is just the tip of an iceberg (not related to global warming at all). And the iceberg is twofold: (1) scientist are trapped in their internal corruption circle due to the compliance to the current science estab- lishment (journal’s editors and reviewers, rules for the professional advances), and (2) scientist are blinded by the beauty of virtual world. While internal corruption is humanly understandable, virtual world is a scientific "benefit" of the computer age. Scientist are less willing to test their hypothesis in the real world when a neat theory supported by computer calculations "in a certain direction" (it’s called "modeling") is so less troublesome. That is, more and more scientist are inclined to produce truth in a virtual world, not to dig it out in a real world. So, don’t be surprised that all 19 IPCC models (the graph on the left; The 4th assessment report, AR4, IPCC, 2007) failed to foresee the Arctic ice melting rate. The discrepancy is huge and, if melting continues at this rate, the summer Arctic Ocean will be ice-free in about fifteen years; the IPCC prediction says it’s unlikely before 2050. |
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Krešimir J. Adamić
