In
his article "An unexplained pause" [C&EN,
Sep. 10, 2007], Michael Heylin evinces the
current world score of scientific and engineering articles as a
crisis from the US point of view. His assessment is based on the
following numbers (see his table on the right): from 1988 to 2003,
the US share of the world total fell from 38.1% to 30.2% because
US accounted for just 14.4% of the total increase in articles over
these years. National Science Foundation, Michael says, apparently
is concerned about the unprecedented and almost total lack of
growth in publica-tions of US articles that began in the early ‘90s:
there were 194,000 US-based articles published in 1991 and 195,800
in 2002. Is there a problem?
Well,
yes, for a colonial state of mind. To keep Michael-type Americans
happy, US should suppress and inhibit R&D outside US borders,
wage a war or two if necessary, because US should remain the world’s
dominant single science power by a large margin. The graph below
shows more trouble on the horizon if you carelessly allow those
billions of people around the globe to do R&D. And, by the
way, some of them are of higher IQ than American whites
(non-Hispanic). Also, R&D in less developed countries grows
exponentially (like any natural process in an early stage) which
makes US (apparently on the upper part of an S curve,
characteristic of a mature natural process) to look really bad. |
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