The
world of professional tennis (Feb. 5, 2007)
While
working on the statistics of ‘06
French Open and
‘07
Australian open, I’ve perceived that tennis rankings should
be an actualization of a Power Law statistics. After all, tennis
tournaments are hierarchical ‘binary conflicts’. So, I took
the Association of Tennis Professionals (men, ATP) and Women's
Tennis Association (WTA) current rankings (Feb. 5, 2007) to test
the assumption. For this project, I’ve restricted the analysis
to the first 256 players of ATP and WTA rankings; the logic was
that this doubles the largest field of a single tournament (Grand
Slam).
And
yes, a power
law is recognizable on the log-log plot (upper right; the
horizontal axis carries a binary scale which is more meaningful
for the rankings), particularly for the main field from 8th to
128th player. The existing deviations could be easily related to
the current world of professional tennis. First of all, the
apparent Roger Federer dominance is not so much his own brilliance
(he is just slightly above the power law prediction for the 1st
position) as it is the under-achievement (from the power law point
of view) of the players from 3rd to 8th position. One may predict
that these positions are currently above average ‘vulnerable’
and of rather short lifetime. The situation is even more
pronounced in WTA ranking where top six payers are underachievers
and the top three substantially so; a lot of changes is due there.
Notice
the change of slope for the 129 to 256 rankings. This is probably
the consequence of the rules for tournament draws: if you are not
among the top 128 players, your access to a higher points
tournament is rather limited.
The
power law behavior of the tennis competition makes binary bins
plausible (lower right): the individual player rankings within a
bin are presented by the average of the ranking points in the bin.
This comes handy when countries are compared; see the
world of professional tennis by country, where a bin of an
individual country is valued as a point percentage of the total
for all 256 players. |